The second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump begins tomorrow (Tues) in the U-S Senate and pundits almost universally predict Trump will be acquitted of charges that he incited deadly violence at the U-S Capitol. Hamline University Professor David Schultz says he doubts, even if there were more evidence, that it would change enough Republican senators’ minds to convict the former president:

“Lacking let us say some smoking guns where, for example… the president had a private meeting where he told people, and when I say x, y z, go out and storm the Capitol — short of something like that, I think… they’re not going to get the conviction.”

Schultz says depending on what the trial looks like, an acquittal might give Trump and his supporters a new lease on life — but he says it’s not clear at this point what the long-term political effects will be.